An Aug. 13 Redfin analysis estimated that the number of active US buyers fell 2.5% from June to 966,752 in July — the lowest level in the company’s records. Sellers outnumbered buyers by nearly half a million as the summer selling season wound down.
The analysis estimated 1.46 million sellers, 51.3% more than buyers and up from 47.9% in June. The buyer and seller estimates are seasonally adjusted, based partly on proprietary data, and subject to revision.
Early August offered a modest counter-signal. Pending sales rose 0.4% week over week during the four weeks ending Aug. 9 but remained 1.6% below a year earlier.
Why closed sales may overstate current demand
Existing-home sales fell 1.7% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in July. Sales remained 0.7% above July 2025, according to the National Association of Realtors’ latest report.
Closed sales largely reflect contracts signed weeks earlier, so pending activity offers a more current measure of demand. A preliminary July sales count showed a 7% annual increase. Newly pending sales rose only 0.3% from the previous year and fell 7.7% from June, according to the July housing market report.
The closed-sales tally and preliminary nowcast use different methods and should not be compared directly. Agents should give greater weight to pending contracts when judging near-term demand.
Financing conditions also became less favorable during the summer. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed from 6.43% on July 2 to 6.67% on Aug. 13. Higher rates increase monthly payments, reduce purchasing power, and can prevent some borrowers from qualifying.
NAR also reported that the national median existing-home price reached $434,100 in July, up 2% year over year. First-time buyers accounted for 29% of transactions.
More choices are not producing more buyers
There were 1.41 million homes for sale in July, 1.5% more than a year earlier. New listings increased 3.1% annually, while 27.1% of listings had a price cut, up from 25.7% in June.
The market balance varies widely by location. Of the 49 major metros analyzed, 39 qualified as buyer’s markets. Miami, Nashville, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin had the largest estimated seller surpluses. Six markets — primarily in the Northeast — continued to favor sellers.
National forecasts still allow for a modest annual increase despite the risk of weaker fall activity. A July 2026 forecast projected NAR-measured existing-home sales to rise 1.9% for the full year. Monthly sales can weaken this fall while remaining above 2025’s depressed total, consistent with The Close’s reported second-half housing forecast.
Where agents should look for a fall slowdown
Agents should compare local pending sales, new listings, months of supply, days on market, and price reductions with both the previous month and the same period last year. Pending contracts and showing activity can reveal changes in demand before they appear in closed-sales reports.
Sellers in slower markets may need sharper pricing, closing-cost assistance, or rate buydown incentives. Agents preparing for those conversations can use a structured price-reduction strategy rather than waiting for a listing to accumulate excessive days on market.
Qualified buyers may have more room to compare properties and negotiate repairs, concessions, or price. Supply-constrained markets can still produce fast sales or multiple offers on well-priced homes, so national buyer-market labels should not replace local analysis.
Fall sales are most vulnerable where elevated rates overlap with rising inventory and weak pending activity. Agents who identify that combination early can reset seller expectations and document buyer leverage before closed-sales reports confirm the shift.