Compass and Zillow are presenting conflicting findings on whether private and phased listing strategies improve sellers’ results. This adds fresh data to their continuing dispute over listing access.
A July 24 Compass study found that homes beginning as Private Exclusives or Coming Soon listings sold for 4.6% more than comparable Compass listings sent directly to the multiple listing service and public portals. A Zillow expert’s court-filed analysis associated likely Compass private-listing sales with lower prices, according to reporting on the competing research.
The analyses used different listing definitions, periods, and methods. Their percentages are not directly comparable.
Inside Compass’s 4.6% estimate
Compass analyzed 70,809 residential transactions that its agents listed between April 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026. Its model combined outcome regression with inverse-probability weighting and controlled for more than 50 variables.
Compass estimated a 4.6% increase in closing price, with a 95% confidence interval of 4.2% to 4.9%. The figure is a model-based estimate rather than a simple comparison of sale-price averages.
The study included only transactions that closed. It does not show whether either strategy produced more expired or withdrawn listings, and excluding unsuccessful listings may affect the estimated difference.
Why the studies reach different results
Compass’s model associated phased marketing with higher closing prices after adjusting for the included variables. The public report does not provide the transaction data or complete specifications required for independent replication.
The study also does not isolate Zillow. Its comparison group combined direct-to-MLS listings with homes distributed to public portals, so the 4.6% estimate is not a Zillow penalty.
Compass also reported that pre-marketed listings went under contract 34% faster after MLS activation and were 29% less likely to receive a price reduction. Those figures are descriptive and do not establish causation.
Zillow economist Lawrence Wu examined transactions from January 2022 through December 2025. He identified likely Compass private-listing sales as homes entering the MLS as sold, or recorded as sold within one day, with Compass agents representing both sides.
Wu associated those transactions with prices 4% lower in Chicagoland and 4.8% lower nationally. His narrower definition captures a different group from Compass’s Private Exclusive and Coming Soon categories, preventing a direct comparison between the results.
When phased marketing may fit
Phased marketing may appeal to sellers who prioritize privacy or want buyer feedback before broad distribution. Sellers who need immediate exposure should ask how many qualified buyers and cooperating agents can access the property during each phase.
The research does not guarantee a premium for an individual home. Agents should weigh the property, local demand, network reach, and seller timeline.
What agents should verify locally
Before citing a national figure, agents should confirm whether their MLS can reliably identify pre-marketed listings. Comparisons should use similar locations, property types, price ranges, and listing periods rather than broad market averages. Include expired and withdrawn listings when possible; closed-sales-only comparisons omit unsuccessful outcomes.
Agents must also review current MLS cooperation, disclosure, and coming-soon requirements. Compass dismissed its earlier Zillow lawsuit in March after Zillow revised how its listing standards applied to some publicly pre-marketed homes.
In a separate Chicago antitrust case, Zillow has accused Compass and Midwest Real Estate Data of coordinating to restrict Zillow’s listing feed. A court temporarily required MRED to restore the feed, and a preliminary-injunction hearing was held in July. The allegations remain disputed.
How agents should present the data
Compass’s 4.6% estimate gives agents another data point for listing presentations, not a guaranteed seller return or evidence of a Zillow price penalty. The recommendation should rest on local results, buyer access, privacy needs, and the seller’s timeline.