Home sales improved in May, but the market remains below normal transaction levels. Existing-home sales rose 3.2% in May 2026 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million, while pending-home sales also rose.
“Normal” means a healthier transaction pace, not simply more listings. Sales volume is still below pre-2022 levels.
The timeline depends on local supply, affordability, and how many owners are willing to give up lower mortgage rates. Some markets are moving toward balance as listings rise and prices soften. Others remain constrained by high payments, limited affordable inventory, or mortgage-rate lock-in.
Buyer pullback is still slowing sales
Low inventory no longer explains every slow market. In March 2026, sellers outnumbered buyers by 43.1%, or 600,168 nationally. Among the largest US metros, 38 were buyer’s markets, up from 29 a year earlier.
Sellers in those markets need pricing, concession, and days-on-market expectations set before launch. More inventory does not automatically create more closings when buyer demand is thin.
Buyers may have more negotiating room in Miami, Nashville, Austin, San Antonio, and Las Vegas, which had some of the largest seller-buyer gaps. In tighter Northeast and Mid-Atlantic markets, well-priced listings can still move quickly.
Affordability is still capping deals
More inventory has not made homes affordable for many buyers. The median existing-home price reached $429,300 in May, up 1.3% year over year. Inventory rose to 4.5 months of supply, but higher supply has not erased the payment shock buyers have absorbed since 2022.
In May, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.44%, keeping monthly payments elevated even where list prices are softening. Buyers with a job move, family change, or lifestyle need may act before rates fall materially. Buyers without urgency may keep waiting for lower rates, larger price cuts, or both.
Rate lock-in is holding back turnover
Mortgage-rate lock-in is also limiting turnover. FHFA research found that for every percentage point current market rates exceed a homeowner’s existing mortgage rate, the probability of that homeowner selling falls by 18.1%.
A later FHFA analysis estimated that lock-in prevented about 1.72 million home sales between the second quarter of 2022 and the second quarter of 2024. Even if buyer demand improves, many owners still have a strong financial reason to stay put.
In high-cost coastal markets, move-up sellers may need a stronger life event — relocation, family change, retirement, estate planning, or job transition — to justify giving up a lower payment.
Market conditions will set the timeline
National averages are less useful than metro-level conditions, so agents need different plays for different markets. In buyer’s markets, focus on motivated sellers, pricing discipline, concessions, and buyer education. In tighter seller’s markets, speed, offer strength, and inventory alerts still matter. In high-lock-in markets, life-stage prospecting may outperform rate-based messaging.
Newer listing data shows buyers are adjusting selectively. May list prices fell 2.4% year over year, pending sales rose for a sixth consecutive month, and new listings reached their highest May level since 2022.
A broad return to pre-2022 transaction volume is unlikely in one cycle. Agents waiting for a national recovery signal may miss business that is already forming locally. In buyer-heavy metros, that may mean motivated sellers. In tight markets, it may mean urgent buyers. In high-lock-in areas, it may mean homeowners moving for a job, family change, retirement, or estate need.
The better question is no longer when the market gets back to normal. It is which clients in your market have a reason to move before it does.