Home prices are rising by double digits in several affordable, inland college towns while national growth remains modest. Morgantown, West Virginia, led the markets studied with a 12.9% year-over-year increase, followed by Syracuse, New York, at 12.5% and Tuscaloosa, Alabama, at 10.6%, according to a new college-town housing analysis.
The three markets posted double-digit gains while home prices nationwide rose 2% in May. The pattern was uneven: Prices fell 9.4% in Santa Barbara, California, 5.7% in Boca Raton, Florida, and 3.2% in Flagstaff, Arizona.
The results reflect a wider 2026 housing trend: National averages are masking sharp differences among local markets. Agents considering college towns should examine the enrollment, rental demand, housing supply and price segments supporting recent gains.
Price growth is concentrated in select markets
The analysis covered MLS sales during the three months ending in May 2026 across the 50 largest qualifying college towns by student population. Students at accredited four-year universities had to make up at least 10% of each city’s population.
Affordability stood out in several leading markets. Syracuse had a median sale price of $180,000, compared with a national median of $398,771. More than 55% of Syracuse homes sold above asking.
Low prices alone did not produce growth. Dayton, Ohio, had the lowest median price in the study at $139,000, but prices declined 0.7%. Mount Pleasant, Michigan, had a median price of $184,000 and an 11.3% annual decline.
4 checks before prospecting
Check 1: Review enrollment trends
Review five to 10 years of enrollment data through the National Center for Education Statistics, then compare it with the university’s latest figures. Look beyond total enrollment. Changes in full-time attendance, online participation and on-campus residency can affect how many students need local housing. The number of US high school graduates is projected to fall 13% between 2025 and 2041, although regional trends vary.
Check 2: Measure rental demand
Review renter households, vacancy and income trends through the American Community Survey. Because federal estimates can lag current conditions, compare them with rental listings, property-manager reports and leasing incentives.
Widening vacancy, slower lease-up times or larger concessions may weaken the rent assumptions used in a buyer’s analysis. Agents should also verify occupancy limits, rental-registration rules and whether leasing by the bedroom is permitted.
Check 3: Examine new housing supply
Review planning records and university announcements for multifamily, student-housing and dormitory projects. A large development can materially change leasing conditions in a smaller market.
Compare planned construction with enrollment, active listings, days on market and recent price reductions. New supply may be absorbed in a growing market but create pressure where the renter base is flat or declining.
University residency rules also affect demand. Requiring more students to live on campus can reduce the number seeking nearby rentals.
Check 4: Verify where prices are rising
Citywide appreciation may not reflect the properties an agent plans to target. A higher median can result from more expensive homes accounting for a larger share of sales. Break MLS results down by neighborhood, property type and price tier, then compare sales volume, price per square foot and days on market.
Agents should also identify the likely resale pool. Faculty, university employees, medical workers, parents and local owner-occupants can provide a broader exit market than student investors alone.
Match the campaign to local demand
Stable enrollment, firm rental demand, limited construction and gains across several price tiers may support a focused campaign. Mixed conditions may call for narrowing the target to a specific neighborhood, property type or client group.
Declining enrollment, widening vacancies and substantial new supply weaken a case built on headline appreciation. Before marketing a college town as a growth opportunity, agents should confirm that recent gains are supported by durable local demand.