A recent down payment analysis shows how much first-time buyer readiness depends on location. In New York City, saving for the median first-time buyer down payment could take an estimated 65 years. In parts of the Midwest, that timeline is closer to four years.
The gap comes from a Rocket Mortgage analysis based on down payments made by Rocket’s first-time homebuyer clients during the year ending May 19, 2026, combined with Census income data. The analysis assumes households save 5% of annual income toward a down payment.
Agents can use the report to make first-time buyer consults more specific. Affordability conversations should start with local cash-to-close expectations before moving to wish lists. A buyer who looks nearly ready in one metro may be far from ready in another.
Down payment timelines vary by market
Rocket found New York City first-time buyers were typically putting down $265,000, or 30% of the purchase price, on a median home price of $883,333. San Francisco followed at $400,000, or 27%, and Los Angeles at $170,500, or 20%.
The fastest markets looked very different. Warren, Michigan, ranked first, with a median first-time buyer down payment of $8,797 and an estimated savings timeline of 3.1 years. Detroit followed at $7,600 and 3.9 years. Virginia Beach, Fort Worth, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Columbus and West Palm Beach all came in at 5.3 years or less.
Those numbers are not a rule for every buyer, but they give agents a starting point for local conversations: whether the buyer’s savings plan, target price range and loan strategy fit the market where they are searching.
That pressure is hitting a buyer pool that is already smaller than usual. NAR’s latest generational report found first-time buyers made up 21% of all buyers, down from 24% the year before and the lowest share since the association began collecting the data in 1981. Baby boomers remained the largest buyer group at 42%, underscoring the edge repeat buyers often have when they bring equity into their next purchase.
Buyer consults should start before the search
For many first-time buyers, the consultation should begin with funding clarity, not neighborhoods or finishes. Agents should know how much the buyer has saved, how much they may need in that market and whether they are relying on savings, gifts, investments, retirement funds or assistance programs.
NAR’s 2025 buyer profile shows why funding questions should come early. First-time buyers had a median age of 40 and a median down payment of 10%, matching the highest level recorded since 1989. Their top down payment sources included personal savings, financial assets, and gifts or loans from family and friends.
Those sources can shape the timeline of a deal. Gift funds, brokerage liquidations and retirement withdrawals can each raise documentation or timing questions. Agents should make sure buyers review those sources with their lender — and, where appropriate, a tax professional — before writing an offer.
A stronger consult should answer three questions before showings begin: whether the buyer has full pre-approval, where the down payment is coming from and whether any gift letter, account liquidation or assistance program could delay closing. That can help prevent a buyer from finding the right home before the financing file is fully ready.
For listing agents, down payment readiness can also shape seller counseling. Entry-level homes may still attract first-time buyers, but sellers should understand how financing, closing-cost help and documentation issues can affect offer strength. A lower-down-payment offer is not automatically weak, but sellers may need a closer look at the full financing picture.
First-time buyers are still active, but the down payment hurdle now varies dramatically by market. Agents who qualify buyers around local savings timelines, funding sources and cash-to-close requirements will be better positioned to separate serious prospects from shoppers who need more runway.