Realtor.com lowered its 2026 home sales and price-growth forecasts on July 8, and June sales data released the next day reinforced the cautious outlook. For listing agents, the updates provide fresh evidence for resetting seller expectations about pricing, demand, and negotiating leverage.
The company now expects 4.10 million existing-home sales in 2026, a 1% increase from last year. Its original forecast called for 4.13 million sales and 1.7% growth. It made a larger reduction to its price outlook, cutting expected appreciation from 2.2% to 1.2%.
Inventory is still projected to increase, but by 3.6% rather than the previously forecast 8.9%. Mortgage rates are expected to average 6.3% for the year, unchanged from the December outlook.
Why buyers remain price-sensitive
Mortgage rates are expected to average slightly less than in 2025, while slower price growth and rising incomes could provide modest affordability relief. Realtor.com projects that the typical mortgage payment will fall 1.9% in 2026, although elevated rates will continue to limit purchasing power.
June existing-home sales fell 2.4% from May but remained 2.8% above June 2025. The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate was 4.09 million, showing that activity remained near the subdued pace projected for 2026. The market is steadier than it was at the beginning of the year, but buyer urgency remains limited by asking prices, property condition, and monthly payments.
How to ground pricing in local data
The forecast reduction reflects softer sales and asking-price trends during the first half of the year. Realtor.com said more sellers are adjusting their initial asking prices to reflect balanced or buyer-friendly conditions, reducing the need for later price cuts.
National inventory reached 1.56 million homes in June, equal to 4.6 months of supply. The median existing-home price was $440,600, up 1.8% from a year earlier.
Before recommending a list price, agents should compare the national outlook with three local MLS metrics:
- Months of supply in the seller’s price range
- Sale-to-list price ratios for recent closings
- Median days on market for comparable properties
Those metrics can show sellers why starting above market carries more risk when buyers have additional choices.
Agents should distinguish between asking-price and closed-sale trends. Asking prices can fall while sale prices rise because the figures track different homes at different points in the selling process. Overpriced listings may remain active, require reductions, or leave the market without selling.
How to reset seller expectations
At a listing appointment, begin with active local competition rather than a broad market label. The number of comparable listings and their days on market make the pricing discussion specific to the property.
From there, compare recently closed homes with listings that required reductions or remain unsold. Establishing a review point also gives sellers a defined opportunity to reconsider price or marketing if showing activity is weak.
The revision also gives agents a timely reason to contact equity-rich owners, downsizers, and first-time sellers. Longtime owners may have enough equity to manage a higher rate on their next purchase, while downsizers and other life-transition sellers may prioritize timing over short-term appreciation. A national forecast can open the conversation, but the listing recommendation should rest on local competition, recent closings, and the payments buyers in that market can afford.